Today’s odds
As of November 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 99.5%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 11 percentage points?
Politics · tracked since November 4, 2026 · last updated 3:14 PM ET
99.5%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 4 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico, 11+ pts | 99.4% | 99.5% | — |
Full history table
| Date | James Talarico, 11+ pts |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-05 | 99.5% |
| 2026-11-04 | 99.4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 11 percentage points — what are the odds?
- As of November 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 99.5%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 11 percentage points” for 2 days, since November 4, 2026. As of November 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 99.5%. The chance for a yes has held near 99.4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.