Today’s odds
As of October 14, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 50%.
▲ 19 since the previous update. ▲ 19 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the People's Party and Vox combined receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Politics · tracked since October 13, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
50%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 13 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 50% | 32% | 50% | ▲ 19 |
Full history table
| Date | At least 50% |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | 50% |
| 2026-10-13 | 32% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the People's Party and Vox combined receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election — what are the odds?
- As of October 14, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 50%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the People's Party and Vox combined receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 32% on October 13, 2026 to 50% on October 14, 2026 — a change of 18 points.
- Will the People's Party and Vox combined receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 2 tracked days the odds ranged between 32% and 50%. The current reading of 50% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the People's Party and Vox combined receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election” for 2 days, since October 13, 2026. As of October 14, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 50%. The chance for a yes has risen from 32% to 50%, ranging between 32% and 50% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.