Final tracked odds
As of October 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 8%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Politics · tracked since October 5, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 30, 2026
8%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 8% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 8% |
| 2026-10-29 | 8% |
| 2026-10-28 | 10% |
| 2026-10-27 | 10% |
| 2026-10-15 | 8% |
| 2026-10-14 | 8% |
| 2026-10-13 | 8% |
| 2026-10-12 | 8% |
| 2026-10-11 | 9% |
| 2026-10-10 | 8% |
| 2026-10-09 | 8% |
| 2026-10-08 | 7% |
| 2026-10-07 | 8% |
| 2026-10-06 | 8% |
| 2026-10-05 | 9% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 15 tracked days the odds held near 9%, ending at 8% on October 30, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections” for 15 days, since October 5, 2026. As of October 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 8%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 9% to 8%, ranging between 7% and 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.