Today’s odds
As of August 2, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 38%.
▲ 4 since the previous update. ▼ 11 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act?
Politics · tracked since July 11, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
38%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Aug 8, 2026 | 34% | 38% | ▲ 4 |
Full history table
| Date | Before Aug 8, 2026 |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | 38% |
| 2026-08-01 | 34% |
| 2026-07-31 | 34% |
| 2026-07-30 | 40% |
| 2026-07-29 | 52% |
| 2026-07-28 | 58% |
| 2026-07-27 | 68% |
| 2026-07-26 | 49% |
| 2026-07-25 | 38% |
| 2026-07-24 | 38% |
| 2026-07-23 | 70% |
| 2026-07-22 | 76% |
| 2026-07-21 | 66% |
| 2026-07-20 | 64% |
| 2026-07-19 | 68% |
| 2026-07-18 | 65% |
| 2026-07-17 | 68% |
| 2026-07-16 | 76% |
| 2026-07-15 | 74% |
| 2026-07-14 | 68% |
| 2026-07-13 | 66% |
| 2026-07-12 | 44% |
| 2026-07-11 | 48% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act — what are the odds?
- As of August 2, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 38%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 23 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 48% on July 11, 2026 to 38% on August 2, 2026 — a change of 10 points.
- Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 23 tracked days the odds ranged between 34% and 76%. The current reading of 38% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act” for 23 days, since July 11, 2026. As of August 2, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 38%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 48% to 38%, ranging between 34% and 76% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.