Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, August 18, 2026, Before Jan 1, 2027 led at 94%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 12 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 88% on August 7, 2026 to 94% on August 18, 2026 — a change of 6 points.

Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 12 tracked days the odds ranged between 88% and 95%. The final reading of 94% sits inside that range.

Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Politics · tracked since July 11, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 18, 2026

94%

Final tracked odds

As of August 18, 2026, market-consensus odds make Before Jan 1, 2027 the most likely outcome at 94%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 94% on August 18, 2026. Before Jan 1, 2027 won.

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 1, 2027Before Oct 1, 2026

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Aug 17	Today	Move
Before Jan 1, 2027	94%	94%	—
Before Oct 1, 2026	88%	85%	▼ 4

Full history table

Date	Before Jan 1, 2027	Before Oct 1, 2026
2026-08-18	94%	85%
2026-08-17	94%	88%
2026-08-16	94%	88%
2026-08-15	94%	88%
2026-08-14	94%	88%
2026-08-13	94%	88%
2026-08-12	95%	86%
2026-08-11	95%	86%
2026-08-10	94%	88%
2026-08-09	94%	90%
2026-08-08	94%	91%
2026-08-07	88%	72%
2026-08-04	—	—
2026-08-03	—	—
2026-08-02	—	—
2026-08-01	—	—
2026-07-31	—	—
2026-07-30	—	—
2026-07-29	—	—
2026-07-28	—	—
2026-07-27	—	—
2026-07-26	—	—
2026-07-25	—	—
2026-07-24	—	—
2026-07-23	—	—
2026-07-22	—	—
2026-07-21	—	—
2026-07-20	—	—
2026-07-19	—	—
2026-07-18	—	—
2026-07-17	—	—
2026-07-16	—	—
2026-07-15	—	—
2026-07-14	—	—
2026-07-13	—	—
2026-07-12	—	—
2026-07-11	—	—

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, August 18, 2026, Before Jan 1, 2027 led at 94%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 12 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 88% on August 7, 2026 to 94% on August 18, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 12 tracked days the odds ranged between 88% and 95%. The final reading of 94% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act” for 12 days, since July 11, 2026. As of August 18, 2026, Before Jan 1, 2027 leads the field at 94%. The final tracked chance for Before Jan 1, 2027 has risen from 88% to 94%, ranging between 88% and 95% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 18, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.