Final tracked odds
As of August 24, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 98%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 9 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 200000?
Politics · tracked since August 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 24, 2026
98%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 23 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 200k | 98% | 98% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Above 200k |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 98% |
| 2026-08-23 | 98% |
| 2026-08-22 | 96% |
| 2026-08-21 | 98% |
| 2026-08-20 | 89% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 200000 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 24, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 98%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 200000 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 89% on August 20, 2026 to 98% on August 24, 2026 — a change of 9 points.
- Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 200000 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 89% and 98%. The final reading of 98% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 200000” for 5 days, since August 20, 2026. As of August 24, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 98%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 89% to 98%, ranging between 89% and 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 24, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.