Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Politics · tracked since August 1, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 2% |
| 2026-10-11 | 2% |
| 2026-10-10 | 2% |
| 2026-10-09 | 2% |
| 2026-10-08 | 3% |
| 2026-10-07 | 2% |
| 2026-10-06 | 2% |
| 2026-10-05 | 2% |
| 2026-10-02 | 2% |
| 2026-08-01 | 2% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 10 tracked days the odds held near 2%, ending at 2% on October 12, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections” for 10 days, since August 1, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The chance for a yes has held near 2% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.