Final tracked odds
As of October 11, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 38%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Politics · tracked since July 19, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 11, 2026
38%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 10 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 38% | 38% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 38% |
| 2026-10-10 | 38% |
| 2026-10-08 | 38% |
| 2026-10-06 | 38% |
| 2026-10-05 | 38% |
| 2026-10-04 | 38% |
| 2026-10-03 | 38% |
| 2026-10-02 | 38% |
| 2026-10-01 | 38% |
| 2026-07-19 | 22% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 11, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 38%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 10 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 22% on July 19, 2026 to 38% on October 11, 2026 — a change of 16 points.
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 10 tracked days the odds ranged between 22% and 38%. The final reading of 38% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections” for 10 days, since July 19, 2026. As of October 11, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 38%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 22% to 38%, ranging between 22% and 38% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 11, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.