Final tracked odds
As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 11%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Nov 1, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since September 17, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 28, 2026
11%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 22 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 12% | 11% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Before Nov 1, 2026 |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 11% |
| 2026-09-22 | 12% |
| 2026-09-21 | 14% |
| 2026-09-20 | 12% |
| 2026-09-19 | 18% |
| 2026-09-18 | 18% |
| 2026-09-17 | 19% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Nov 1, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 11%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Nov 1, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 7 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 19% on September 17, 2026 to 11% on September 28, 2026 — a change of 8 points.
- Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Nov 1, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 7 tracked days the odds ranged between 11% and 19%. The final reading of 11% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Nov 1, 2026” for 7 days, since September 17, 2026. As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 11%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 19% to 11%, ranging between 11% and 19% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.