Final tracked odds
As of August 16, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 97%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?
Everything Else · tracked since August 13, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 16, 2026
97%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 15 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 97% | 97% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | 97% |
| 2026-08-15 | 97% |
| 2026-08-14 | 97% |
| 2026-08-13 | 98% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 16, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 97%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17” for 4 days, since August 13, 2026. As of August 16, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 97%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 16, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.