5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?

Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 15% on October 6, 2026 to 4% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 11 points.

5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 15%. The current reading of 4% sits at the bottom of that range.

5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: 5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since October 6, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET

Today’s odds

As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.

▼ 11 since the previous update. ▼ 12 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Oct 7	Today	Move
5 or more	14%	4%	▼ 11

Full history table

Date	5 or more
2026-10-12	4%
2026-10-07	14%
2026-10-06	15%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026 — what are the odds?: As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?: Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 15% on October 6, 2026 to 4% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 11 points.
5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?: Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 15%. The current reading of 4% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026” for 3 days, since October 6, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 4%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 15% to 4%, ranging between 4% and 15% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.