Edition of July 9, 2026 · built from 8,339 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 9:35 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 120K at 78% this morning. · ▲ 63 points overnight
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will average gas prices be above $3.880? Above 3.880 | Everything Else | 93% ▲ 89 7d: ▲ 89 |
| Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic Party selects Graham Platner's replacement through a special state convention before Aug 1, 2026? Special convention | Everything Else | 96% ▲ 72 7d: ▲ 72 |
| Will CONFESSIONS II by Madonna have above 120000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 03, 2026 - July 09, 2026 tracking week? Above 120K | Culture | 78% ▲ 63 7d: ▲ 58 |
| Will Desire Doue start for France? Desire Doue starts for France | World Cup | 89% ▲ 62 7d: ▲ 49 |
| Will Kayda be eliminated from Love Island USA Season 8 before Jul 11, 2026? Kayda | Everything Else | 12% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 37 |
| Will CONFESSIONS II by Madonna have above 100000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the July 03, 2026 - July 09, 2026 tracking week? Above 100K | Culture | 60% ▲ 52 7d: ▲ 45 |
| Will July 6 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)? July 6 | Everything Else | 12% ▼ 45 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Alexander Zverev qualify for Final at the 2026 Wimbledon Men Singles tennis tournament? Alexander Zverev | Tennis | 85% ▲ 48 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Genesis Scottish Open: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10 in Round 1? Rory McIlroy | Golf | 87% ▲ 55 7d: ▲ 55 |
| Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $1.50 in December 2026? Above $1.50 | Everything Else | 48% ▼ 50 7d: ▼ 50 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Forecast | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Coco Gauff win the Muchova vs Gauff: Semifinal match? Coco Gauff · settles today | Tennis | 39% ▼ 10 7d: ▼ 10 |
| Norway vs England: To Advance Norway advances · settles in 2 days | World Cup | 36% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Jannik Sinner win the Wimbledon Men's Singles? Jannik Sinner · settles in 4 days | Tennis | 64% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 10 days | World Cup | 32% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Spain vs Belgium: To Advance Belgium advances · settles tomorrow | World Cup | 26% — |
| France vs Morocco: To Advance Morocco advances · settles today | World Cup | 22% — |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 10 days | World Cup | 20% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 10 days | World Cup | 19% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 174 days | Everything Else | 16% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes · settles in 10 days | World Cup | 16% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Forecast | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Guy Den Ouden win the Coria vs Den Ouden: Round Of 16 match? Guy Den Ouden · settles today | Tennis | 94.0% — |
| Will Ksenia Smirnova win the Chapman vs Smirnova: W35 Hillcrest Round of 16 match? Ksenia Smirnova · settles today | Tennis | 94.5% — |
| Will Kenzie be eliminated from Love Island USA Season 8 before Jul 11, 2026? Kenzie · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 95.5% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Dylan be eliminated from Love Island USA Season 8 before Jul 11, 2026? Dylan · settles in 2 days | Everything Else | 95.5% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will CONFESSIONS II by Madonna have above 100000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 03, 2026 - July 09, 2026 tracking week? Above 100K · settles in 3 days | Culture | 93.5% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 4 |
| The Invite Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 92 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 98.0% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 67.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 10, 2026? Above $67.49 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 97.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 68.49 USD/Bbl on Jul 10, 2026? Above $68.49 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 96.0% — |
| Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.60% in Jun 2026? Above 4.60% · settles today | Economy | 95.5% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7479.9999 on Jul 9, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,480 or above · settles today | Markets | 93.5% — |