Edition of August 31, 2026 · built from 4,096 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:00 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Above 2,000 units at 35% this morning. · ▼ 22 points overnight · settles in 252 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 1, 2026? Above $84.99 | Commodities | 73% ▲ 56 7d: ▲ 56 |
| Will The Whisper Man be Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 31, 2026? Surging The Whisper Man | Culture | 71% ▲ 32 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will The Whisper Man be #2 US Netflix Movie on Aug 31, 2026? The Whisper Man | Culture | 30% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 49 |
| Will Danielle Chang win the Outstanding Culinary Host award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards? Danielle Chang | Culture | 50% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Will Ramp AI Index OpenAI model adoption rate for August 2026 be above 41.5%? Above 41.5% | Everything Else | 6% ▼ 39 7d: ▼ 37 |
| Will The Lovely Lemurs of Madagascar win the Outstanding Travel and Adventure Program award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards? The Lovely Lemurs of Madagascar | Culture | 48% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will New Economic Party be a part of the next government in Israel? New Economic Party | Everything Else | 15% ▼ 40 7d: ▼ 15 |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 15.7M daily views at any point during August 24, 2026 - August 30, 2026? Above 15.7M | Culture | 42% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will The Jennifer Hudson Show win the Outstanding Technical Direction and Video for a Daytime Program award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards? The Jennifer Hudson Show | Culture | 44% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 40 |
| Will The Drew Barrymore Show win the Outstanding Editing for a Daytime Studio Program award at the 53rd Annual Daytime Emmy Awards? The Drew Barrymore Show | Culture | 12% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 2 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amit Vales wins Amit Vales | Tennis | in 1 hours | 64% — |
| Peter Fajta wins Peter Fajta | Tennis | in 1 hours | 44% — |
| Spirit wins Spirit | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 66% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| The Dog Stars Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 | Culture | in 5 hours | 23% ▼ 25 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Team Falcons wins Team Falcons | Everything Else | in 9 hours | 54% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026? Above $85.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 64% ▲ 62 7d: ▲ 53 |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-31? Yes | Everything Else | in 10 hours | 88% — |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29409.99 at the end of Aug 31, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 29,410 or above | Markets | in 11 hours | 54% — |
| Will The Whisper Man be Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 31, 2026? The Whisper Man | Culture | tomorrow | 71% ▲ 32 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid? Yes | Everything Else | tomorrow | 77% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.7 and 39.9 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.7 to 39.9 | Politics | in 4 days | 26% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will there be at least 1 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Aug 30, 2026? At least 1 | Politics | in 6 days | 10% ▼ 7 7d: ▼ 7 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 16 days | Economy | 52% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 16 days | Economy | 48% ▼ 4 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will the silver close price be above 66.50 USD/t.oz on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $66.50 · settles today | Commodities | 64% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Spirit wins Spirit · settles today | Everything Else | 66% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Huachipato wins Huachipato · | Everything Else | 70% — |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes · settles in 13 days | Tennis | 30% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 18 |
| Will The Whisper Man be Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 31, 2026? The Whisper Man · settles tomorrow | Culture | 71% ▲ 32 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 799 days | Politics | 25% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| The Dog Stars Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 · settles today | Culture | 23% ▼ 25 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Will it be reported by the U.S. House of Representatives that the U.S. House of Representatives adjourns from substantive floor business for its pre-election 2026 recess before Sep 26, 2026? Before Sep 26, 2026 · settles in 72 days | Politics | 22% — 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Sebastian Gorzny wins Sebastian Gorzny · | Tennis | 22% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 10 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 123 days | Everything Else | 16% ▲ 3 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 799 days | Everything Else | 15% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026? Above $84.99 · settles today | Commodities | 86% ▲ 79 7d: ▲ 64 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 799 days | Politics | 11% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will there be at least 1 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Aug 30, 2026? At least 1 · settles in 6 days | Politics | 10% ▼ 7 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 97 days | Sports | 90% — 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Rei Sakamoto wins Rei Sakamoto · | Tennis | 90% ▲ 32 7d: ▲ 31 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026? Yes · settles today | Everything Else | 99.4% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will WILDCHILD by Alex Warren have above 60000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 28, 2026 - September 03, 2026 tracking week? Above 60K · settles in 6 days | Culture | 96.5% ▲ 63 7d: ▲ 70 |
| Mark Lajal wins Mark Lajal · settles today | Tennis | 96.5% — |
| Japan wins Japan · settles today | Everything Else | 96.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026? Above $83.99 · settles today | Commodities | 97.5% ▲ 73 7d: ▲ 58 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 83.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026? Above $83.49 · settles today | Commodities | 98.0% ▲ 59 7d: ▲ 49 |
| Charles Broom wins Charles Broom · settles today | Tennis | 97.5% — |
| Will Beauty in Black: Season 3 be #2 US Netflix Show on Aug 31, 2026? Beauty in Black: Season 3 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 96.0% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 62 |