Edition of September 27, 2026 · built from 6,942 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Tie at 48% this morning. · ▲ 45 points overnight · settles in 134 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will average gas prices be above $4.4780? Above 4.4780 | Everything Else | 20% ▼ 63 7d: ▼ 63 |
| Will Tie win Best Progressive R&B Album at the Grammys? Surging Tie | Culture | 46% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will Tie win Best Traditional R&B Performance at the Grammys? Surging Tie | Culture | 48% ▲ 45 7d: ▲ 45 |
| Will The Feeling win Best R&B Solo Performance at the Grammys? The Feeling | Culture | 44% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 39 |
| Will Tie win Best R&B Album at the Grammys? Surging Tie | Culture | 41% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 39 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.25% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.26% or above | Economy | 12% ▼ 41 7d: ▼ 41 |
| Will the lot sold price of the Odalisque (lot 107) by Alexander Calder on Sotheby's be above $200000 during the live auction beginning October 7, 2026 at 11:00 AM EDT (Contemporary Curated, sale N12254)? Above $200K | Everything Else | 52% ▼ 33 7d: ▼ 30 |
| Will the minimum temperature be >73° in Miami on Sep 27, 2026? 74° or above | News | 66% ▲ 43 7d: ▲ 43 |
| Will Bramble win Poetry at the 77th National Book Awards? Bramble | Everything Else | 44% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 38 |
| Will OpenAI release a personal AI agent before Oct 1, 2026? Before Oct 1, 2026 | Everything Else | 90% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 74 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m? Yes | Culture | in 3 hours | 45% — |
| Zimbabwe wins Zimbabwe | Everything Else | in 6 hours | 38% — |
| South Africa wins South Africa | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 40% ▼ 6 |
| Will Germany win on 2026-09-27? Yes | Everything Else | in 10 hours | 68% — |
| Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-09-27? Yes | Everything Else | in 10 hours | 36% — |
| KC Chiefs wins by over 10.5 points? KC Chiefs wins by over 10.5 points | NFL | in 11 hours | 46% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| DET Lions wins by over 6.5 points? DET Lions wins by over 6.5 points | NFL | in 11 hours | 50% ▼ 1 |
| Scottie Scheffler to win Scottie Scheffler | Politics | later today | 74% — |
| Scottie Scheffler: Most Points Scottie Scheffler | Politics | later today | 36% ▲ 15 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Heart of the Beast Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 87 | Culture | tomorrow | 29% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 94 | Culture | tomorrow | 62% ▼ 33 7d: ▼ 32 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 28, 2026? Above $93.99 | Commodities | tomorrow | 57% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 27 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| KC Chiefs wins by over 10.5 points? KC Chiefs wins by over 10.5 points · settles today | NFL | 46% ▼ 3 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4281 USD/t.oz on September 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $4281 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 54% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m? Yes · settles today | Culture | 45% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 93.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 28, 2026? Above $93.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 57% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 27 |
| South Africa wins South Africa · settles today | Everything Else | 40% ▼ 6 |
| Scottie Scheffler: Most Points Scottie Scheffler · settles today | Politics | 36% ▲ 15 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Taylor Swift have the top 4 songs on the Billboard 100 for the week of October 10, 2026? Exactly Yes · settles in 13 days | Culture | 32% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 39 |
| 100 Thieves wins 100 Thieves · settles today | Everything Else | 68% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes · settles in 186 days | Culture | 68% ▼ 9 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Heart of the Beast Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 87 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 29% ▼ 12 7d: ▼ 9 |
| Scottie Scheffler to win Scottie Scheffler · settles today | Politics | 74% — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 772 days | Politics | 21% — |
| Anna Kubareva wins Anna Kubareva · | Tennis | 19% — |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 96 days | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 773 days | Everything Else | 16% — |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 847 days | Politics | 13% — |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes · settles in 186 days | NFL | 12% — |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? Yes · settles in 95 days | Economy | 89% — 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 277 days | NBA | 11% — |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? Yes · settles in 96 days | Economy | 89% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 48 |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? Yes · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 97.2% — 7d: ▲ 11 |
| KT Wiz wins KT Wiz · settles today | Everything Else | 93.5% — |
| Sebastian Dominko wins Sebastian Dominko · settles today | Tennis | 93.5% — |
| Forgotten Island Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 91 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 98.5% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will it rain in Washington DC on Sep 27, 2026? Washington DC · settles tomorrow | News | 93.5% — |
| Heart of the Beast Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 84 · settles tomorrow | Culture | 98.5% — |
| Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez wins Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez · settles today | Tennis | 96.0% — |
| How much will it rain in New York City in September 26–27, 2026? Above 1.5 inches · settles today | News | 97.0% — |
| Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.36% on Sep 28, 2026? 5.37% or above · settles tomorrow | Economy | 97.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 87.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 28, 2026? Above $87.49 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 96.5% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |