Today’s Number
Atlanta vs Los Angeles D Division Series winner: Atlanta wins
Market-consensus odds put Atlanta at 15% this morning. · ▼ 24 points overnight · settles in 11 days · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of October 7, 2026
Edition of October 7, 2026 · built from 4,809 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
15%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the highest standard Disneyland one-day, one-park adult ticket price on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET be above $230? Above $230 | Everything Else | 5% ▼ 82 7d: ▼ 82 |
| Will OpenRouter token usage for Oct 5–11, 2026 be above 164 T tokens? Above 164 T tokens | Everything Else | 16% ▼ 62 7d: ▼ 62 |
| Will Trump say "Golden Dome" before Oct 12, 2026? Golden Dome | Everything Else | 8% ▼ 50 7d: ▼ 50 |
| DeepSeek market share this week? Above 24.6% | Everything Else | 54% ▲ 44 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.3400? Above 4.3400 | Everything Else | 62% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38 |
| OpenAI market share this week? Above 18.7% | Everything Else | 18% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 32 |
| Will Diesel Price on October 12, 2026 be above $6.26? Above $6.26 | Everything Else | 12% ▼ 34 7d: ▼ 34 |
| Z.ai market share this week? Above 10.8% | Everything Else | 68% ▲ 31 7d: ▲ 31 |
| Atlanta vs Los Angeles D Division Series winner: Atlanta wins Surging Atlanta | MLB | 15% ▼ 25 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Anthropic market share this week? Above 2.5% | Everything Else | 82% ▲ 29 7d: ▲ 29 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NRG wins NRG | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 72% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Paper Rex wins Paper Rex | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 54% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 7, 2026? Above $89.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 42% — |
| Chicago WS wins Chicago WS | MLB | later today | 52% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.7 according to RealClearPolitics? 38.5 to 38.7 | Politics | in 2 days | 33% ▲ 22 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 99.99 USD/Bbl on October 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $99.99 | Commodities | in 2 days | 52% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 8 |
| ATL Falcons wins by over 2.5 points? ATL Falcons wins by over 2.5 points | NFL | in 5 days | 58% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Other Mommy Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 | Culture | in 5 days | 66% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Trump say "Rigged Election / Stolen Election" before Oct 12, 2026? Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Politics | in 5 days | 62% ▼ 5 7d: ▼ 5 |
| Will East of Eden: Limited Series be Top US Netflix Show on Oct 12, 2026? East of Eden: Limited Series | Culture | in 6 days | 62% — |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 99.99 USD/Bbl on October 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $99.99 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 52% ▼ 6 7d: ▼ 8 |
| Paper Rex wins Paper Rex · settles today | Everything Else | 54% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%? Yes · settles in 106 days | Economy | 56% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 89.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 7, 2026? Above $89.99 · settles today | Commodities | 42% — |
| Francesco Maestrelli wins Francesco Maestrelli · | Tennis | 64% — |
| Other Mommy Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 40 · settles in 5 days | Culture | 66% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.7 according to RealClearPolitics? 38.5 to 38.7 · settles in 2 days | Politics | 33% ▲ 22 7d: ▲ 7 |
| NRG wins NRG · settles today | Everything Else | 72% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Maks Kasnikowski wins Maks Kasnikowski · | Tennis | 22% — |
| You Can See Everything Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 99 · settles in 12 days | Culture | 18% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 763 days | Everything Else | 17% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 86 days | Everything Else | 16% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Yes · settles in 176 days | Culture | 16% — |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 85% — 7d: ▲ 28 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 14% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 28 |
| Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election? Lorenzo Pazolini · settles in 100 days | Politics | 88% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 267 days | NBA | 12% — 7d: ▲ 4 |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes · settles in 86 days | Economy | 12% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 12 |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 236 days | Champions League | 10% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Shopify Rebellion wins map 1 Shopify Rebellion · settles today | Everything Else | 96.0% — |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.2800? Above 4.2800 · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 96.5% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Giovanni Oradini wins Giovanni Oradini · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Joshua Charlton wins Joshua Charlton · settles today | Tennis | 98.5% — |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.899 USD/MMBtu on October 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $2.899 · settles in 2 days | Commodities | 96.5% ▲ 17 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% on Oct 7, 2026? 5.2% or above · settles today | Economy | 98.5% — |
| Will it rain in West Palm Beach between Oct 10 and Oct 11, 2026? West Palm Beach · settles in 6 days | News | 98.5% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 85.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 7, 2026? Above $85.49 · settles today | Commodities | 97.5% — |
| Will it rain in Trenton between Oct 10 and Oct 11, 2026? Trenton · settles in 6 days | News | 93.0% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be above 7779.9999 on Oct 7, 2026 at 10am EDT? 7,780 or above · settles today | Markets | 96.5% — |