Edition of October 20, 2026 · built from 3,448 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
Today’s Number
Market-consensus odds put Russia / Ukraine at 67% this morning. · ▼ 18 points overnight · settles in 17 days · on unusually heavy volume
What changed
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 30.9% Above 30.9% | Everything Else | 30% ▼ 50 |
| Will ZEC trimmed mean be above $1880.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026? Above $1,880.00 | Everything Else | 56% ▲ 51 |
| DeepSeek market share this week? Above 26.4% | Everything Else | 62% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 34 |
| Will ZEC trimmed mean be below $760.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026? Below $760.00 | Everything Else | 54% ▲ 40 |
| Will average gas prices be above $4.2800? Above 4.2800 | Everything Else | 4% ▼ 25 7d: ▼ 25 |
| Anthropic market share this week? Above 4.9% | Everything Else | 26% ▼ 32 7d: ▼ 32 |
| Will it rain in Albuquerque on Oct 20, 2026? Albuquerque | News | 74% ▲ 24 |
| Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? Yes | Everything Else | 14% ▼ 18 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will Open vs. Closed Token Volume (open weights share) for Oct 20, 2026 be above 61.2%? Above 61.2% | Sports | 58% ▲ 26 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October? Yes | Everything Else | 50% ▲ 13 7d: ▲ 14 |
What to watch next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,120.69 | Commodities | within the hour | 48% — |
| Felix Gill wins Felix Gill | Tennis | in 2 hours | 44% — |
| Kia Tigers wins Kia Tigers | Everything Else | in 4 hours | 48% ▼ 9 7d: ▼ 10 |
| England wins England | Everything Else | in 7 hours | 68% — |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-20? Yes | Everything Else | in 10 hours | 40% — |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-20? Yes | Everything Else | in 10 hours | 46% — |
| Will the Index.US30/USD be at least $52,175 at October 20, 2026 at 4pm ET? At least $52,175 | Markets | in 11 hours | 41% — |
| New York wins by over 4.5 points New York wins by over 4.5 points | NBA | later today | 50% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will No Bad Memories by The Avalanches have above 9000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 16, 2026 - October 22, 2026 tracking week? Above 9K | Culture | in 5 days | 22% — |
| Will Dopamine Chamber by Fontaines D.C. have above 23000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 16, 2026 - October 22, 2026 tracking week? Above 23K | Culture | in 5 days | 49% — |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? Yes | Politics | in 6 days | 70% ▲ 2 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? Yes | Politics | in 6 days | 20% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1 |
Still open
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,120.69 · settles today | Commodities | 48% — |
| Anhelina Kalinina wins Anhelina Kalinina · | Tennis | 46% — |
| Will the Index.US30/USD be at least $52,175 at October 20, 2026 at 4pm ET? At least $52,175 · settles today | Markets | 41% — |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 12 days | MLB | 37% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 19 |
| Jumanji: Open World Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 75 · settles in 69 days | Culture | 36% — |
| Will Democrats win all 2026 U.S. House and Senate elections in New England? Yes · settles in 21 days | Politics | 32% — |
| Michele Ribecai wins Michele Ribecai · | Tennis | 68% — |
| England wins England · settles today | Everything Else | 68% — |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 77% — 7d: ▼ 10 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 22% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 51 days | Economy | 20% — |
| Will Donald Trump issue any announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming the next White House Press Secretary (excluding acting/interim) before Nov 6, 2026? Before Nov 6, 2026 · settles in 45 days | Politics | 17% ▼ 46 7d: ▼ 7 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 750 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 73 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 9 days | Economy | 86% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 24 |
| Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary before Jan 20, 2029? Scott Jennings · settles in 830 days | Everything Else | 14% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 254 days | Culture | 13% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Werwulf Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 70 · settles in 69 days | Culture | 90% — |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes · settles in 223 days | Champions League | 10% — |
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? Yes · settles today | Everything Else | 97.0% — |
| Denise Valente wins Denise Valente · settles today | Tennis | 95.0% — |
| Drazen Petrovic wins Drazen Petrovic · settles today | Tennis | 93.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 95.49 USD/Bbl on Oct 20, 2026? Above $95.49 · settles today | Commodities | 97.5% — |
| Will the copper close price be above 6.58 USD/Lbs on October 20, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $6.58 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% — |
| Nigeria wins Nigeria · settles today | Everything Else | 96.5% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 3 |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% on Oct 20, 2026? 5.04% or above · settles today | Economy | 96.5% — |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.01% on Oct 20, 2026? 5.02% or above · settles today | Economy | 98.5% — |