Today’s Number
Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Market-consensus odds put this at 20% this morning. · ▼ 6 points overnight · settles in 252 days · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of October 22, 2026
Edition of October 22, 2026 · built from 1,963 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.
20%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Clayface Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 67 | Culture | 87% ▲ 59 |
| What will Arkady Volozh say during Nebius LIVE interview at NVIDIA GTC Berlin originally scheduled for October 22, 2026? Agentic | Everything Else | 90% ▲ 50 |
| BMW Ladies Championship: Hae-Ran Ryu wins Hae-Ran Ryu | Everything Else | 38% ▲ 32 |
| Madeira wins by more than 2.5 goals? Madeira wins by more than 2.5 goals | Everything Else | 40% ▲ 34 |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 12 million views? At least 12 million | Culture | 58% ▼ 21 7d: ▼ 21 |
| Notts wins by more than 2.5 goals? Notts wins by more than 2.5 goals | Everything Else | 44% ▲ 34 7d: ▲ 34 |
| Genesis Championship: Casey Jarvis wins Casey Jarvis | Everything Else | 18% ▲ 15 7d: ▲ 15 |
| Will it rain in San Francisco on Oct 22, 2026? San Francisco | News | 93% ▲ 16 |
| Will Animals be Top US Netflix Movie on Oct 26, 2026? Animals | Culture | 66% ▼ 19 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | 65% ▼ 10 7d: ▼ 5 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mattia Bellucci wins Mattia Bellucci | Tennis | within the hour | 44% — |
| Luca Van Assche wins Luca Van Assche | Tennis | in 4 hours | 44% — |
| TheMongolz wins TheMongolz | Everything Else | in 6 hours | 50% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 99.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 22, 2026? Above $99.99 | Commodities | in 9 hours | 48% — |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 108.50 USD/Bbl on October 22, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $108.50 | Commodities | in 12 hours | 48% — |
| Genesis Championship: Si Woo Kim wins Si Woo Kim | Everything Else | in 3 days | 22% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? Yes | Everything Else | in 3 days | 17% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 66 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25? Yes | Everything Else | in 3 days | 26% — |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad? Yes | Politics | in 4 days | 72% — |
| Clayface Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 67 | Culture | in 4 days | 87% — |
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Yes | Politics | in 5 days | 49% ▼ 38 7d: ▼ 38 |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 12 million views? At least 12 million | Culture | in 5 days | 58% ▼ 21 7d: ▼ 21 |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Santiago Rodriguez Taverna wins Santiago Rodriguez Taverna · | Tennis | 56% — |
| Mattia Bellucci wins Mattia Bellucci · settles today | Tennis | 44% — |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 12 million views? At least 12 million · settles in 5 days | Culture | 58% ▼ 21 7d: ▼ 21 |
| BMW Ladies Championship: Hae-Ran Ryu wins Hae-Ran Ryu · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 38% — |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Yes · settles in 10 days | MLB | 37% — 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 18 at the November 3, 2026 general election? Trump +18 or more · settles in 144 days | Politics | 64% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 98.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 22, 2026? Above $98.99 · settles today | Commodities | 70% — |
| Genesis Championship: Si Woo Kim wins Si Woo Kim · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 22% ▲ 11 7d: ▲ 11 |
| Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 252 days | NBA | 22% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 22% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes · | Politics | 79% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 49 days | Economy | 18% — |
| Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Ohio's 9th District House election be at least 1 percentage points? Merrin, 1+ pts · settles in 377 days | Politics | 18% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 748 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 71 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes · settles in 252 days | Culture | 14% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Clayface Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 67 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 87% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 95.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 23, 2026? Above $95.99 · settles tomorrow | Commodities | 88% — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes · settles in 7 days | Economy | 88% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 27 |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| Clayface Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 62 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 97.0% — |
| Jack Loge wins Jack Loge · settles today | Tennis | 98.0% — |
| Elena Milovanovic wins Elena Milovanovic · settles today | Tennis | 95.5% — |
| Broadway attendance above 220,000? Above 220,000 · settles in 4 days | Everything Else | 98.5% — |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 94.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 22, 2026? Above $94.99 · settles today | Commodities | 98.5% — |
| Will it rain in San Francisco on Oct 22, 2026? San Francisco · settles tomorrow | News | 93.0% — |
| Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 9 million views? At least 9 million · settles in 5 days | Culture | 98.5% — |
| Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Oct 22, 2026? 5% or above · settles today | Economy | 95.5% — |
| Will Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 4 be #1 on Steam's Weekly Top Sellers - Top 100 products by revenue list for Oct 20 - Oct 27, 2026? Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® 4 · settles in 5 days | Everything Else | 95.5% ▲ 24 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 95.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 22, 2026? Above $95.99 · settles today | Commodities | 97.5% — |