ATP Tokyo: Carlos Alcaraz wins — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 45%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

ATP Tokyo: Carlos Alcaraz wins — how much did the odds move?

Barely. Across 6 tracked days the odds held near 44%, ending at 45% on October 5, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

ATP Tokyo: Carlos Alcaraz wins — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 42% and 72%. The final reading of 45% sits inside that range.

ATP Tokyo: Carlos Alcaraz wins?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: ATP Tokyo: Carlos Alcaraz wins?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Tennis · tracked since September 29, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026

45%

Final tracked odds

As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 45%.

▼ 27 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 45% on October 5, 2026. Carlos Alcaraz won.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Oct 4	Today	Move
Carlos Alcaraz	72%	45%	▼ 27

Full history table

Date	Carlos Alcaraz
2026-10-05	45%
2026-10-04	72%
2026-10-02	62%
2026-10-01	62%
2026-09-30	42%
2026-09-29	44%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

ATP Tokyo: Carlos Alcaraz wins — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 45%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
ATP Tokyo: Carlos Alcaraz wins — how much did the odds move?: Barely. Across 6 tracked days the odds held near 44%, ending at 45% on October 5, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
ATP Tokyo: Carlos Alcaraz wins — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 42% and 72%. The final reading of 45% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “ATP Tokyo: Carlos Alcaraz wins” for 6 days, since September 29, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 45%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 44%, ranging between 42% and 72% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.