Canelo Alvarez wins — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, September 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 76%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Canelo Alvarez wins — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 7 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 72% on September 12, 2026 to 76% on September 28, 2026 — a change of 4 points.

Canelo Alvarez wins — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 7 tracked days the odds ranged between 70% and 76%. The final reading of 76% sits at the top of that range.

Canelo Alvarez wins?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Canelo Alvarez wins?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Boxing · tracked since September 12, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 28, 2026

76%

Final tracked odds

As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 76%.

▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 22	Today	Move
Canelo Alvarez	74%	76%	▲ 1

Full history table

Date	Canelo Alvarez
2026-09-28	76%
2026-09-22	74%
2026-09-21	74%
2026-09-15	72%
2026-09-14	70%
2026-09-13	72%
2026-09-12	72%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Canelo Alvarez wins — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 76%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Canelo Alvarez wins — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 7 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 72% on September 12, 2026 to 76% on September 28, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
Canelo Alvarez wins — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 7 tracked days the odds ranged between 70% and 76%. The final reading of 76% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Canelo Alvarez wins” for 7 days, since September 12, 2026. As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 76%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 72% to 76%, ranging between 70% and 76% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.