Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31 — what are the odds?

As of August 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31 — have the odds gone up or down?

Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 36% on July 23, 2026 to 14% on August 6, 2026 — a change of 22 points.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31 — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 14% and 36%. The current reading of 14% sits at the bottom of that range.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since July 23, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

14%

Today’s odds

As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 14%.

▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 22 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Aug 5	Today	Move
Yes	14%	14%	▼ 1

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-08-06	14%
2026-08-05	14%
2026-08-04	17%
2026-08-03	18%
2026-07-23	36%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31 — what are the odds?: As of August 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31 — have the odds gone up or down?: Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 36% on July 23, 2026 to 14% on August 6, 2026 — a change of 22 points.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31 — what are the highest and lowest odds?: Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 14% and 36%. The current reading of 14% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31” for 5 days, since July 23, 2026. As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 14%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 36% to 14%, ranging between 14% and 36% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.