Final tracked odds
As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 43%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 16 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Everything Else · tracked since August 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026
43%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 44% | 43% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 43% |
| 2026-10-03 | 44% |
| 2026-09-30 | 50% |
| 2026-09-29 | 49% |
| 2026-09-28 | 58% |
| 2026-09-26 | 60% |
| 2026-09-25 | 60% |
| 2026-09-24 | 60% |
| 2026-09-23 | 56% |
| 2026-09-22 | 56% |
| 2026-09-21 | 56% |
| 2026-09-19 | 54% |
| 2026-09-18 | 52% |
| 2026-08-08 | 54% |
| 2026-08-07 | 50% |
| 2026-08-06 | 50% |
| 2026-08-05 | 52% |
| 2026-08-04 | 53% |
| 2026-08-03 | 55% |
| 2026-08-02 | 55% |
| 2026-08-01 | 57% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Base FDV above $2B one day after launch — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 43%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Base FDV above $2B one day after launch — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 21 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 57% on August 1, 2026 to 43% on October 4, 2026 — a change of 14 points.
- Base FDV above $2B one day after launch — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 21 tracked days the odds ranged between 43% and 60%. The final reading of 43% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Base FDV above $2B one day after launch” for 21 days, since August 1, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 43%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 57% to 43%, ranging between 43% and 60% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.