Final tracked odds
As of October 6, 2026, market-consensus odds make Above 8 the most likely outcome at 89%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
How many launches will SpaceX have in Oct 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since October 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 6, 2026
89%
How the odds have moved
Above 8Above 9Above 10Above 11Above 12
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 8 | 90% | 89% | ▼ 1 |
| Above 9 | 85% | 74% | ▼ 10 |
| Above 10 | 42% | 20% | ▼ 22 |
| Above 11 | 16% | 10% | ▼ 7 |
| Above 12 | 3% | 4% | ▲ 1 |
| Above 15 | 2% | 2% | — |
| Above 13 | 2% | 2% | — |
| Above 14 | 2% | 2% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Above 8 | Above 9 | Above 10 | Above 11 | Above 12 | Above 15 | Above 13 | Above 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | 89% | 74% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 2026-10-05 | 90% | 85% | 42% | 16% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 2026-10-04 | 89% | 86% | 42% | 18% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 2026-10-03 | 92% | 84% | 48% | 22% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| 2026-10-02 | 92% | 84% | 70% | 21% | 10% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| 2026-10-01 | 91% | — | 72% | 24% | 10% | 2% | 2% | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- How many launches will SpaceX have in Oct 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 6, 2026, Above 8 led at 89%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- How many launches will SpaceX have in Oct 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 91% on October 1, 2026 to 89% on October 6, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “How many launches will SpaceX have in Oct 2026” for 6 days, since October 1, 2026. As of October 6, 2026, Above 8 leads the field at 89%. The final tracked chance for Above 8 has fallen from 91% to 89%, ranging between 89% and 92% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 6, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.