Today’s odds
As of September 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 76%.
▲ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Politics · tracked since August 16, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
76%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 23 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 74% | 76% | ▲ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | 76% |
| 2026-08-23 | 74% |
| 2026-08-16 | 72% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31 — what are the odds?
- As of September 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 76%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 72% on August 16, 2026 to 76% on September 1, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31” for 3 days, since August 16, 2026. As of September 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 76%. The chance for a yes has risen from 72% to 76%, ranging between 72% and 76% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.