Final tracked odds
As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 79%.
▼ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Politics · tracked since August 16, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 30, 2026
79%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 82% | 79% | ▼ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 79% |
| 2026-09-29 | 82% |
| 2026-09-28 | 84% |
| 2026-09-27 | 84% |
| 2026-09-26 | 84% |
| 2026-09-25 | 84% |
| 2026-09-24 | 84% |
| 2026-09-23 | 86% |
| 2026-09-01 | 72% |
| 2026-08-23 | 74% |
| 2026-08-16 | 72% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 79%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 11 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 72% on August 16, 2026 to 79% on September 30, 2026 — a change of 7 points.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 11 tracked days the odds ranged between 72% and 86%. The final reading of 79% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31” for 11 days, since August 16, 2026. As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 79%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 72% to 79%, ranging between 72% and 86% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.