Final tracked odds
As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
Politics · tracked since August 5, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 6% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 6% |
| 2026-10-03 | 6% |
| 2026-10-02 | 6% |
| 2026-09-30 | 7% |
| 2026-09-29 | 7% |
| 2026-09-28 | 7% |
| 2026-09-26 | 7% |
| 2026-09-25 | 7% |
| 2026-09-24 | 7% |
| 2026-09-23 | 7% |
| 2026-09-22 | 8% |
| 2026-09-21 | 8% |
| 2026-09-19 | 8% |
| 2026-09-18 | 8% |
| 2026-09-17 | 8% |
| 2026-09-16 | 8% |
| 2026-09-15 | 8% |
| 2026-09-14 | 8% |
| 2026-09-13 | 8% |
| 2026-09-12 | 9% |
| 2026-09-11 | 9% |
| 2026-09-10 | 9% |
| 2026-09-09 | 9% |
| 2026-09-08 | 9% |
| 2026-09-07 | 9% |
| 2026-09-06 | 10% |
| 2026-09-05 | 9% |
| 2026-09-04 | 9% |
| 2026-09-03 | 9% |
| 2026-09-02 | 9% |
| 2026-09-01 | 9% |
| 2026-08-06 | 9% |
| 2026-08-05 | 8% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 33 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on August 5, 2026 to 6% on October 4, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026” for 33 days, since August 5, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 8% to 6%, ranging between 6% and 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.