Final tracked odds
As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 57%.
▼ 3 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Manchin Senate combo: Both lose?
Politics · tracked since September 16, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 28, 2026
57%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 22 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both lose | 60% | 57% | ▼ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Both lose |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 57% |
| 2026-09-22 | 60% |
| 2026-09-21 | 56% |
| 2026-09-17 | 57% |
| 2026-09-16 | 64% |
| 2026-09-15 * | 45% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Manchin Senate combo: Both lose — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 57%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Manchin Senate combo: Both lose — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 64% on September 16, 2026 to 57% on September 28, 2026 — a change of 7 points.
- Manchin Senate combo: Both lose — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 56% and 64%. The final reading of 57% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Manchin Senate combo: Both lose” for 5 days, since September 16, 2026. As of September 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 57%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 64% to 57%, ranging between 56% and 64% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.