Today’s odds
As of September 2, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 82%.
▲ 3 since the previous update. ▲ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
Politics · tracked since August 14, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
82%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 14 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 78% | 82% | ▲ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 82% |
| 2026-08-14 | 78% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30 — what are the odds?
- As of September 2, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 82%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 78% on August 14, 2026 to 82% on September 2, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30” for 2 days, since August 14, 2026. As of September 2, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 82%. The chance for a yes has risen from 78% to 82%, ranging between 78% and 82% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.