Today’s odds
As of July 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 30%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Kash Patel out by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 11, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
30%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 30% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 30% |
| 2026-07-30 | 30% |
| 2026-07-29 | 32% |
| 2026-07-28 | 32% |
| 2026-07-26 | 31% |
| 2026-07-25 | 30% |
| 2026-07-24 | 34% |
| 2026-07-23 | 34% |
| 2026-07-22 | 36% |
| 2026-07-21 | 37% |
| 2026-07-20 | 40% |
| 2026-07-19 | 42% |
| 2026-07-18 | 40% |
| 2026-07-17 | 44% |
| 2026-07-16 | 42% |
| 2026-07-15 | 42% |
| 2026-07-14 | 48% |
| 2026-07-13 | 46% |
| 2026-07-12 | 56% |
| 2026-07-11 | 48% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Kash Patel out by December 31 — what are the odds?
- As of July 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 30%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Kash Patel out by December 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 20 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 48% on July 11, 2026 to 30% on July 31, 2026 — a change of 18 points.
- Kash Patel out by December 31 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 20 tracked days the odds ranged between 30% and 56%. The current reading of 30% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Kash Patel out by December 31” for 20 days, since July 11, 2026. As of July 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 30%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 48% to 30%, ranging between 30% and 56% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.