Today’s odds
As of October 16, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 1.4%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?
Everything Else · tracked since October 5, 2026 · last updated 12:55 PM ET
1.4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.0% | 1.4% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | 1.4% |
| 2026-10-05 | 1.0% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31 — what are the odds?
- As of October 16, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 1.4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31” for 2 days, since October 5, 2026. As of October 16, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 1.4%. The chance for a yes has held near 1.0% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.