Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since August 10, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 20 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 6% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 6% |
| 2026-09-20 | 6% |
| 2026-09-19 | 6% |
| 2026-09-18 | 6% |
| 2026-09-17 | 6% |
| 2026-09-16 | 8% |
| 2026-09-15 | 6% |
| 2026-09-14 | 6% |
| 2026-09-13 | 6% |
| 2026-09-12 | 8% |
| 2026-09-11 | 8% |
| 2026-09-10 | 8% |
| 2026-08-10 | 10% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31 — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 13 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 10% on August 10, 2026 to 6% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31” for 13 days, since August 10, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 10% to 6%, ranging between 6% and 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.