Today’s odds
As of October 16, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 24%.
▼ 7 since the previous update. ▼ 15 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since October 11, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
24%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 14 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 32% | 24% | ▼ 7 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | 24% |
| 2026-10-14 | 32% |
| 2026-10-11 | 40% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of October 16, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 24%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 40% on October 11, 2026 to 24% on October 16, 2026 — a change of 16 points.
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 24% and 40%. The current reading of 24% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026” for 3 days, since October 11, 2026. As of October 16, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 24%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 40% to 24%, ranging between 24% and 40% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.