Today’s odds
As of September 2, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 10, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 0.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-31 | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-30 | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-29 | 0.1% |
| 2026-08-28 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-27 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-26 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-25 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-24 | 0.2% |
| 2026-08-23 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-22 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-21 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-20 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-19 | 0.7% |
| 2026-08-18 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-17 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-16 | 1.2% |
| 2026-08-15 | 2% |
| 2026-08-14 | 2% |
| 2026-08-13 | 2% |
| 2026-07-19 | 10% |
| 2026-07-18 | 12% |
| 2026-07-17 | 12% |
| 2026-07-16 | 12% |
| 2026-07-10 | 18% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31 — what are the odds?
- As of September 2, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 26 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 18% on July 10, 2026 to 0.1% on September 2, 2026 — a change of 18 points.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 26 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.1% and 18%. The current reading of 0.1% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31” for 26 days, since July 10, 2026. As of September 2, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 18% to 0.1%, ranging between 0.1% and 18% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.