Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, September 8, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 32 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 18% on July 10, 2026 to 0.1% on September 8, 2026 — a change of 18 points.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 32 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.1% and 18%. The final reading of 0.1% sits at the bottom of that range.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since July 10, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 8, 2026

0.1%

Final tracked odds

As of September 8, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.1%.

Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 7	Today	Move
Yes	0.1%	0.1%	—

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-09-08	0.1%
2026-09-07	0.1%
2026-09-06	0.1%
2026-09-05	0.1%
2026-09-04	0.1%
2026-09-03	0.1%
2026-09-02	0.1%
2026-09-01	0.1%
2026-08-31	0.1%
2026-08-30	0.1%
2026-08-29	0.1%
2026-08-28	0.2%
2026-08-27	0.4%
2026-08-26	0.4%
2026-08-25	0.4%
2026-08-24	0.2%
2026-08-23	0.4%
2026-08-22	0.4%
2026-08-21	0.4%
2026-08-20	0.4%
2026-08-19	0.7%
2026-08-18	1.1%
2026-08-17	1.1%
2026-08-16	1.2%
2026-08-15	2%
2026-08-14	2%
2026-08-13	2%
2026-07-19	10%
2026-07-18	12%
2026-07-17	12%
2026-07-16	12%
2026-07-10	18%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 8, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 32 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 18% on July 10, 2026 to 0.1% on September 8, 2026 — a change of 18 points.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 32 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.1% and 18%. The final reading of 0.1% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31” for 32 days, since July 10, 2026. As of September 8, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.1%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 18% to 0.1%, ranging between 0.1% and 18% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 8, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.