The Morning Line

What will Donald Trump say during Remarks in Las Vegas, Nevada?

Everything Else · tracked since August 4, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 5, 2026

98%

Final tracked odds

As of August 5, 2026, market-consensus odds make Social Security the most likely outcome at 98%.

▲ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

What happened: The market said 96% on August 5, 2026. Social Security won.

How the odds have moved

Social SecurityDemocratOil / Gas / GasolineTariffFake News
0%25%50%75%100%Aug 4Aug 5Social Security — Aug 4: 96%Social Security — Aug 5: 98%98%Democrat — Aug 4: 94%Democrat — Aug 5: 98%Oil / Gas / Gasoline — Aug 4: 94%Oil / Gas / Gasoline — Aug 5: 96%Tariff — Aug 4: 90%Tariff — Aug 5: 94%Fake News — Aug 4: 86%Fake News — Aug 5: 94%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeAug 4TodayMove
Social Security96%98%▲ 2
Democrat94%98%▲ 3
Oil / Gas / Gasoline94%96%▲ 2
Tariff90%94%▲ 4
Fake News86%94%▲ 7
Communist / Communism92%94%▲ 1
Venezuela90%92%▲ 2
Stock Market88%92%▲ 4
Full history table
DateSocial SecurityDemocratOil / Gas / GasolineTariffFake NewsCommunist / CommunismVenezuelaStock Market
2026-08-0598%98%96%94%94%94%92%92%
2026-08-0496%94%94%90%86%92%90%88%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

What will Donald Trump say during Remarks in Las Vegas, Nevada — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, August 5, 2026, Social Security led at 98%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
What will Donald Trump say during Remarks in Las Vegas, Nevada — did the odds go up or down?
Up. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 96% on August 4, 2026 to 98% on August 5, 2026 — a change of 2 points.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “What will Donald Trump say during Remarks in Las Vegas, Nevada” for 2 days, since August 4, 2026. As of August 5, 2026, Social Security leads the field at 98%. The final tracked chance for Social Security has risen from 96% to 98%, ranging between 96% and 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

More questions we track

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.