Today’s odds
As of August 29, 2026, market-consensus odds make Democrat the most likely outcome at 92%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
What will Donald Trump say during RNC Midterm Convention?
Everything Else · tracked since August 27, 2026 · last updated 12:52 PM ET
92%
How the odds have moved
DemocratBidenHottestOil / Gas / GasolineStock Market
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 91% | 92% | ▲ 1 |
| Biden | 90% | 91% | ▲ 2 |
| Hottest | — | 91% | — |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | — | 90% | — |
| Stock Market | — | 90% | — |
| Trillion | 88% | 88% | — |
| Venezuela | 88% | 88% | ▲ 1 |
| Transgender | 88% | 88% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Democrat | Biden | Hottest | Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Stock Market | Trillion | Venezuela | Transgender |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | 92% | 91% | 91% | 90% | 90% | 88% | 88% | 88% |
| 2026-08-28 | 91% | 90% | — | — | — | 88% | 88% | 88% |
| 2026-08-27 | 91% | 90% | — | — | — | 76% | 80% | 80% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- What will Donald Trump say during RNC Midterm Convention — what are the odds?
- As of August 29, 2026, Democrat leads at 92%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “What will Donald Trump say during RNC Midterm Convention” for 3 days, since August 27, 2026. As of August 29, 2026, Democrat leads the field at 92%. The chance for Democrat has held near 91% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.