The Morning Line

What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

90%

Today’s odds

As of July 29, 2026, market-consensus odds make M&A / Acquisition the most likely outcome at 90%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

M&A / AcquisitionInflationAI / Artificial IntelligenceHeadwindCatastrophe
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 13Jul 18Jul 23Jul 29M&A / Acquisition — Jul 7: 80%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 8: 80%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 9: 80%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 10: 80%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 11: 80%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 12: 80%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 13: 81%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 14: 80%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 15: 91%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 16: 90%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 17: 92%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 18: 90%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 19: 90%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 20: 90%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 21: 88%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 22: 87%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 23: 92%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 24: 92%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 25: 92%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 26: 92%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 27: 90%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 28: 90%M&A / Acquisition — Jul 29: 90%90%Inflation — Jul 7: 76%Inflation — Jul 8: 76%Inflation — Jul 9: 44%Inflation — Jul 10: 64%Inflation — Jul 11: 75%Inflation — Jul 12: 78%Inflation — Jul 13: 76%Inflation — Jul 14: 79%Inflation — Jul 15: 78%Inflation — Jul 16: 76%Inflation — Jul 17: 85%Inflation — Jul 18: 87%Inflation — Jul 19: 86%Inflation — Jul 20: 83%Inflation — Jul 21: 86%Inflation — Jul 22: 86%Inflation — Jul 23: 80%Inflation — Jul 24: 84%Inflation — Jul 25: 81%Inflation — Jul 26: 84%Inflation — Jul 27: 84%Inflation — Jul 28: 81%Inflation — Jul 29: 82%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 11: 78%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 12: 74%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 13: 74%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 14: 75%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 15: 78%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 16: 78%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 17: 74%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 18: 70%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 19: 72%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 20: 74%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 21: 74%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 22: 74%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 23: 79%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 24: 79%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 25: 79%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 26: 77%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 27: 77%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 28: 76%AI / Artificial Intelligence — Jul 29: 75%Headwind — Jul 7: 40%Headwind — Jul 8: 40%Headwind — Jul 9: 39%Headwind — Jul 10: 33%Headwind — Jul 11: 50%Headwind — Jul 12: 55%Headwind — Jul 13: 63%Headwind — Jul 14: 64%Headwind — Jul 15: 67%Headwind — Jul 16: 58%Headwind — Jul 17: 52%Headwind — Jul 18: 51%Headwind — Jul 19: 51%Headwind — Jul 20: 51%Headwind — Jul 21: 50%Headwind — Jul 22: 50%Headwind — Jul 23: 54%Headwind — Jul 24: 56%Headwind — Jul 25: 55%Headwind — Jul 26: 60%Headwind — Jul 27: 60%Headwind — Jul 28: 54%Headwind — Jul 29: 53%Catastrophe — Jul 7: 44%Catastrophe — Jul 8: 44%Catastrophe — Jul 9: 43%Catastrophe — Jul 10: 38%Catastrophe — Jul 11: 37%Catastrophe — Jul 12: 40%Catastrophe — Jul 13: 38%Catastrophe — Jul 14: 36%Catastrophe — Jul 15: 46%Catastrophe — Jul 16: 48%Catastrophe — Jul 17: 51%Catastrophe — Jul 18: 52%Catastrophe — Jul 19: 48%Catastrophe — Jul 20: 48%Catastrophe — Jul 21: 54%Catastrophe — Jul 22: 56%Catastrophe — Jul 23: 46%Catastrophe — Jul 24: 42%Catastrophe — Jul 25: 44%Catastrophe — Jul 26: 46%Catastrophe — Jul 27: 52%Catastrophe — Jul 28: 50%Catastrophe — Jul 29: 50%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 28TodayMove
M&A / Acquisition90%90%—
Inflation81%82%—
AI / Artificial Intelligence76%75%▼ 1
Headwind54%53%▼ 1
Catastrophe50%50%—
Snapshot36%34%▼ 1
Iran / Middle East18%18%—
Pet Insurance16%16%—
Full history table
DateM&A / AcquisitionInflationAI / Artificial IntelligenceHeadwindCatastropheSnapshotIran / Middle EastPet Insurance
2026-07-2990%82%75%53%50%34%18%16%
2026-07-2890%81%76%54%50%36%18%16%
2026-07-2790%84%77%60%52%33%18%14%
2026-07-2692%84%77%60%46%34%18%15%
2026-07-2592%81%79%55%44%30%18%15%
2026-07-2492%84%79%56%42%24%24%10%
2026-07-2392%80%79%54%46%34%16%15%
2026-07-2287%86%74%50%56%36%22%12%
2026-07-2188%86%74%50%54%37%22%14%
2026-07-2090%83%74%51%48%37%16%16%
2026-07-1990%86%72%51%48%34%17%16%
2026-07-1890%87%70%51%52%37%20%16%
2026-07-1792%85%74%52%51%38%16%15%
2026-07-1690%76%78%58%48%39%16%15%
2026-07-1591%78%78%67%46%55%16%13%
2026-07-1480%79%75%64%36%38%38%22%
2026-07-1381%76%74%63%38%26%40%21%
2026-07-1280%78%74%55%40%26%40%21%
2026-07-1180%75%78%50%37%28%40%22%
2026-07-1080%64%—33%38%29%40%21%
2026-07-0980%44%—39%43%30%26%24%
2026-07-0880%76%—40%44%32%25%17%
2026-07-0780%76%—40%44%44%24%17%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call — what are the odds?
As of July 29, 2026, M&A / Acquisition leads at 90%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call — have the odds gone up or down?
Up. Over the 23 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 80% on July 7, 2026 to 90% on July 29, 2026 — a change of 10 points.
What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call — what are the highest and lowest odds?
Over 23 tracked days the odds ranged between 80% and 92%. The current reading of 90% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call” for 23 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, M&A / Acquisition leads the field at 90%. The chance for M&A / Acquisition has risen from 80% to 90%, ranging between 80% and 92% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

More questions we track

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.