The Morning Line

Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Everything Else · tracked since July 8, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 31, 2026

0.1%

Final tracked odds

As of July 31, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Microsoft leads at 0.1%.

Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

MicrosoftAlphabetTesla
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 8Jul 17Jul 22Jul 26Jul 31Microsoft — Jul 8: 0.1%Microsoft — Jul 9: 0.1%Microsoft — Jul 31: 0.1%0.1%Alphabet — Jul 12: 2%Alphabet — Jul 27: 0.1%Alphabet — Jul 28: 0.1%Alphabet — Jul 29: 0.1%Alphabet — Jul 30: 0.1%Alphabet — Jul 31: 0.1%Tesla — Jul 31: 0.1%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 30TodayMove
Microsoft—0.1%—
Alphabet0.1%0.1%—
Tesla—0.1%—
Full history table
DateMicrosoftAlphabetTesla
2026-07-310.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-07-30—0.1%—
2026-07-29—0.1%—
2026-07-28—0.1%—
2026-07-27—0.1%—
2026-07-26———
2026-07-25———
2026-07-24———
2026-07-23———
2026-07-22———
2026-07-21———
2026-07-20———
2026-07-19———
2026-07-18———
2026-07-17———
2026-07-12—2%—
2026-07-11———
2026-07-10———
2026-07-090.1%——
2026-07-080.1%——

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31 — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, July 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31” for 3 days, since July 8, 2026. As of July 31, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Microsoft leads at 0.1%. The final tracked chance for the leading outcome has held near 0.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

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