The Morning Line

Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Everything Else · tracked since July 8, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

0.1%

Today’s odds

As of July 29, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Alphabet leads at 0.1%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

AlphabetAmazon
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 8Jul 12Jul 20Jul 25Jul 29Alphabet — Jul 12: 2%Alphabet — Jul 27: 0.1%Alphabet — Jul 28: 0.1%Alphabet — Jul 29: 0.1%0.1%Amazon — Jul 20: 0.1%Amazon — Jul 21: 0.1%Amazon — Jul 22: 0.1%Amazon — Jul 23: 0.1%Amazon — Jul 24: 0.1%Amazon — Jul 25: 0.1%Amazon — Jul 26: 0.1%Amazon — Jul 27: 0.1%Amazon — Jul 28: 0.1%Amazon — Jul 29: 0.1%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 28TodayMove
Alphabet0.1%0.1%
Amazon0.1%0.1%
Full history table
DateAlphabetAmazon
2026-07-290.1%0.1%
2026-07-280.1%0.1%
2026-07-270.1%0.1%
2026-07-260.1%
2026-07-250.1%
2026-07-240.1%
2026-07-230.1%
2026-07-220.1%
2026-07-210.1%
2026-07-200.1%
2026-07-19
2026-07-18
2026-07-17
2026-07-122%
2026-07-11
2026-07-10
2026-07-09
2026-07-08

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31 — what are the odds?
As of July 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 2% on July 12, 2026 to 0.1% on July 29, 2026 — a change of 2 points.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31” for 4 days, since July 8, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Alphabet leads at 0.1%. The chance for the leading outcome has fallen from 2% to 0.1% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

More questions we track