Final tracked odds
As of July 19, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Gustavo Petro leads at 0.1%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will be the next leader out before 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 19, 2026
0.1%
How the odds have moved
Gustavo PetroPedro Sánchez
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 18 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Petro | 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
| Pedro Sánchez | — | 0.1% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Gustavo Petro | Pedro Sánchez |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-18 | 0.1% | — |
| 2026-07-17 | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-16 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-15 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-14 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-13 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-12 | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2026-07-11 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 0.5% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 0.3% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 0.4% | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 0.4% | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will be the next leader out before 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, July 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will be the next leader out before 2027 — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 13 tracked days the odds held near 0.4%, ending at 0.1% on July 19, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the next leader out before 2027” for 13 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 19, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Gustavo Petro leads at 0.1%. The final tracked chance for the leading outcome has held near 0.4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.