Final tracked odds
As of September 29, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 32%.
▼ 4 since the previous update. ▼ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will be the next leader out before 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 29, 2026
32%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 36% | 32% | ▼ 4 |
Full history table
| Date | Benjamin Netanyahu |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | 32% |
| 2026-09-28 | 36% |
| 2026-09-27 | 34% |
| 2026-09-26 | 33% |
| 2026-09-25 | 32% |
| 2026-09-24 | 30% |
| 2026-09-23 | 36% |
| 2026-07-19 | — |
| 2026-07-18 | — |
| 2026-07-17 | — |
| 2026-07-16 | — |
| 2026-07-15 | — |
| 2026-07-14 | — |
| 2026-07-13 | — |
| 2026-07-12 | — |
| 2026-07-11 | — |
| 2026-07-10 | — |
| 2026-07-09 | — |
| 2026-07-08 | — |
| 2026-07-07 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will be the next leader out before 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 32%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will be the next leader out before 2027 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 7 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 36% on September 23, 2026 to 32% on September 29, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the next leader out before 2027” for 7 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 29, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 32%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 36% to 32%, ranging between 30% and 36% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 29, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.