The Morning Line

Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Everything Else · tracked since July 20, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET

2%

Today’s odds

As of October 12, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Alphabet leads at 2%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

AlphabetSpaceXTesla
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 20Aug 10Aug 31Sep 21Oct 12Alphabet — Oct 6: 3%Alphabet — Oct 12: 2%2%SpaceX — Oct 8: 0.2%SpaceX — Oct 12: 0.1%Tesla — Sep 8: 0.1%Tesla — Oct 12: 0.1%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeOct 11TodayMove
Alphabet2%2%—
SpaceX0.1%0.1%—
Tesla0.1%0.1%—
Full history table
DateAlphabetSpaceXTesla
2026-10-122%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-112%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-102%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-092%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-082%0.2%0.1%
2026-10-073%—0.1%
2026-10-063%—0.1%
2026-10-05——0.1%
2026-10-04——0.1%
2026-10-03——0.1%
2026-10-02——0.1%
2026-10-01——0.1%
2026-09-30——0.1%
2026-09-29——0.1%
2026-09-28——0.1%
2026-09-27——0.1%
2026-09-26——0.1%
2026-09-25——0.1%
2026-09-24——0.1%
2026-09-23——0.1%
2026-09-22——0.1%
2026-09-21——0.1%
2026-09-20——0.1%
2026-09-19——0.1%
2026-09-18——0.1%
2026-09-17——0.1%
2026-09-16——0.1%
2026-09-15——0.1%
2026-09-14——0.1%
2026-09-13——0.1%
2026-09-12——0.1%
2026-09-11——0.1%
2026-09-10——0.1%
2026-09-09——0.1%
2026-09-08——0.1%
2026-09-07———
2026-09-06———
2026-09-05———
2026-09-04———
2026-09-03———
2026-09-02———
2026-09-01———
2026-08-31———
2026-08-30———
2026-08-29———
2026-08-28———
2026-08-27———
2026-08-26———
2026-08-25———
2026-08-24———
2026-08-23———
2026-08-22———
2026-08-21———
2026-08-20———
2026-08-19———
2026-08-18———
2026-08-17———
2026-08-16———
2026-08-15———
2026-08-14———
2026-08-13———
2026-08-12———
2026-08-11———
2026-08-10———
2026-08-09———
2026-08-08———
2026-08-07———
2026-08-06———
2026-08-05———
2026-08-04———
2026-08-03———
2026-08-02———
2026-08-01———
2026-07-31———
2026-07-30———
2026-07-29———
2026-07-28———
2026-07-27———
2026-07-26———
2026-07-25———
2026-07-24———
2026-07-23———
2026-07-22———
2026-07-21———
2026-07-20———

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31 — what are the odds?
As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31 — how much have the odds move?
Barely. Across 7 tracked days the odds held near 3%, ending at 2% on October 12, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31” for 7 days, since July 20, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Alphabet leads at 2%. The chance for the leading outcome has fallen from 3% to 2% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

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