Today’s odds
As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds make NVIDIA the most likely outcome at 66%.
▲ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 17 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since July 20, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
66%
How the odds have moved
NVIDIAApple
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA | 64% | 66% | ▲ 2 |
| Apple | 18% | 16% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | NVIDIA | Apple |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 66% | 16% |
| 2026-08-05 | 64% | 18% |
| 2026-08-04 | 60% | — |
| 2026-08-03 | 52% | — |
| 2026-08-02 | 55% | — |
| 2026-08-01 | 57% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 56% | — |
| 2026-07-30 | 48% | — |
| 2026-07-29 | 48% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | 48% | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 51% | — |
| 2026-07-26 | 57% | — |
| 2026-07-25 | 55% | — |
| 2026-07-24 | 62% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | 66% | — |
| 2026-07-22 | 64% | — |
| 2026-07-21 | 62% | — |
| 2026-07-20 | 60% | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31 — what are the odds?
- As of August 6, 2026, NVIDIA leads at 66%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 18 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 60% on July 20, 2026 to 66% on August 6, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 18 tracked days the odds ranged between 48% and 66%. The current reading of 66% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31” for 18 days, since July 20, 2026. As of August 6, 2026, NVIDIA leads the field at 66%. The chance for NVIDIA has risen from 60% to 66%, ranging between 48% and 66% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.