Final tracked odds
As of October 28, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 16%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?
Everything Else · tracked since October 19, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 28, 2026
16%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 18% | 16% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 16% |
| 2026-10-26 | 18% |
| 2026-10-25 | 18% |
| 2026-10-24 | 18% |
| 2026-10-23 | 18% |
| 2026-10-22 | 16% |
| 2026-10-21 | 16% |
| 2026-10-20 | 16% |
| 2026-10-19 | 18% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 28, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 16%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 9 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 18% on October 19, 2026 to 16% on October 28, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028” for 9 days, since October 19, 2026. As of October 28, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 16%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 18% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 28, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.