Final tracked odds
As of October 26, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 24%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?
Everything Else · tracked since October 21, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 26, 2026
24%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 25 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 24% | 24% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 24% |
| 2026-10-25 | 24% |
| 2026-10-24 | 24% |
| 2026-10-23 | 23% |
| 2026-10-22 | 20% |
| 2026-10-21 | 20% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 26, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 24%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 20% on October 21, 2026 to 24% on October 26, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029” for 6 days, since October 21, 2026. As of October 26, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 24%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 20% to 24%, ranging between 20% and 24% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 26, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.