Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 82%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since August 1, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
82%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 82% | 82% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 82% |
| 2026-10-11 | 82% |
| 2026-10-10 | 82% |
| 2026-10-09 | 82% |
| 2026-10-08 | 82% |
| 2026-10-07 | 80% |
| 2026-10-06 | 81% |
| 2026-10-05 | 88% |
| 2026-10-04 | 85% |
| 2026-10-03 | 84% |
| 2026-10-02 | 84% |
| 2026-10-01 | 84% |
| 2026-08-13 | 48% |
| 2026-08-12 | 38% |
| 2026-08-11 | 38% |
| 2026-08-08 | 40% |
| 2026-08-07 | 40% |
| 2026-08-06 | 40% |
| 2026-08-05 | 40% |
| 2026-08-04 | 38% |
| 2026-08-03 | 38% |
| 2026-08-02 | 38% |
| 2026-08-01 | 40% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027 — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 82%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 23 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 40% on August 1, 2026 to 82% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 42 points.
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 23 tracked days the odds ranged between 38% and 88%. The current reading of 82% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027” for 23 days, since August 1, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 82%. The chance for a yes has risen from 40% to 82%, ranging between 38% and 88% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.