Final tracked odds
As of October 8, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 28%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
Everything Else · tracked since September 2, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 8, 2026
28%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 7 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 29% | 28% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | 28% |
| 2026-10-07 | 29% |
| 2026-10-06 | 29% |
| 2026-10-05 | 30% |
| 2026-09-22 | 24% |
| 2026-09-21 | 24% |
| 2026-09-05 | 21% |
| 2026-09-04 | 21% |
| 2026-09-03 | 21% |
| 2026-09-02 | 20% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 8, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 28%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 10 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 20% on September 2, 2026 to 28% on October 8, 2026 — a change of 8 points.
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 10 tracked days the odds ranged between 20% and 30%. The final reading of 28% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day” for 10 days, since September 2, 2026. As of October 8, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 28%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 20% to 28%, ranging between 20% and 30% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 8, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.