Today’s odds
As of October 16, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 14%.
▲ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 9 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
Everything Else · tracked since September 10, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
14%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 15 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 14% | ▲ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | 14% |
| 2026-10-15 | 12% |
| 2026-10-14 | 12% |
| 2026-09-28 | 24% |
| 2026-09-11 | 18% |
| 2026-09-10 | 16% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day — what are the odds?
- As of October 16, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 16% on September 10, 2026 to 14% on October 16, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 12% and 24%. The current reading of 14% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day” for 6 days, since September 10, 2026. As of October 16, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 14%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 16% to 14%, ranging between 12% and 24% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.