Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December — what are the odds?

As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 5%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December — have the odds gone up or down?

Down. Over the 8 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 38% on September 25, 2026 to 5% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 33 points.

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 8 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 38%. The current reading of 5% sits inside that range.

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since September 25, 2026 · last updated 3:00 PM ET

Today’s odds

As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 5%.

▲ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 16 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Nov 2	Today	Move
Yes	4%	5%	▲ 1

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-11-04	5%
2026-11-02	4%
2026-11-01	7%
2026-10-15	21%
2026-10-14	18%
2026-10-13	21%
2026-10-12	20%
2026-09-25	38%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December — what are the odds?: As of November 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 5%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December — have the odds gone up or down?: Down. Over the 8 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 38% on September 25, 2026 to 5% on November 4, 2026 — a change of 33 points.
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December — what are the highest and lowest odds?: Over 8 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 38%. The current reading of 5% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December” for 8 days, since September 25, 2026. As of November 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 5%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 38% to 5%, ranging between 4% and 38% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.