Final tracked odds
As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 20%.
▲ 4 since the previous update. ▲ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026
20%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 16% | 20% | ▲ 4 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 20% |
| 2026-09-30 | 16% |
| 2026-09-29 | 18% |
| 2026-09-28 | 16% |
| 2026-09-27 | 16% |
| 2026-09-26 | 16% |
| 2026-09-25 | 17% |
| 2026-09-24 | 18% |
| 2026-09-23 | 16% |
| 2026-09-22 | 18% |
| 2026-09-21 | 18% |
| 2026-09-20 | 20% |
| 2026-09-19 | 21% |
| 2026-09-18 | 20% |
| 2026-09-17 | 23% |
| 2026-09-16 | 23% |
| 2026-09-15 | 21% |
| 2026-09-14 | 22% |
| 2026-09-13 | 24% |
| 2026-09-12 | 24% |
| 2026-09-11 | 24% |
| 2026-09-10 | 24% |
| 2026-09-09 | 24% |
| 2026-09-08 | 24% |
| 2026-09-07 | 23% |
| 2026-09-06 | 23% |
| 2026-09-05 | 24% |
| 2026-09-04 | 23% |
| 2026-09-03 | 21% |
| 2026-09-02 | 20% |
| 2026-09-01 | 24% |
| 2026-08-24 | 26% |
| 2026-08-23 | 26% |
| 2026-08-22 | 30% |
| 2026-08-21 | 26% |
| 2026-08-20 | 24% |
| 2026-08-19 | 24% |
| 2026-08-18 | 27% |
| 2026-08-17 | 25% |
| 2026-08-16 | 24% |
| 2026-08-15 | 28% |
| 2026-08-14 | 28% |
| 2026-08-13 | 30% |
| 2026-08-12 | 31% |
| 2026-08-11 | 26% |
| 2026-08-10 | 26% |
| 2026-08-09 | 24% |
| 2026-07-31 | 34% |
| 2026-07-30 | 34% |
| 2026-07-29 | 32% |
| 2026-07-28 | 31% |
| 2026-07-27 | 31% |
| 2026-07-26 | 34% |
| 2026-07-25 | 31% |
| 2026-07-24 | 37% |
| 2026-07-23 | 35% |
| 2026-07-22 | 34% |
| 2026-07-21 | 36% |
| 2026-07-19 | 40% |
| 2026-07-18 | 44% |
| 2026-07-17 | 46% |
| 2026-07-16 | 46% |
| 2026-07-15 | 48% |
| 2026-07-14 | 48% |
| 2026-07-13 | 48% |
| 2026-07-12 | 55% |
| 2026-07-11 | 49% |
| 2026-07-10 | 36% |
| 2026-07-09 | 36% |
| 2026-07-08 | 36% |
| 2026-07-07 | 34% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 20%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 71 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 34% on July 7, 2026 to 20% on October 4, 2026 — a change of 14 points.
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 71 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 55%. The final reading of 20% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027” for 71 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 20%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 34% to 20%, ranging between 16% and 55% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.