Final tracked odds
As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.9%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?
NBA · tracked since July 20, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026
0.9%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.2% | 0.9% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 0.9% |
| 2026-09-30 | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-29 | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-28 | 1.4% |
| 2026-09-27 | 2% |
| 2026-09-26 | 2% |
| 2026-09-25 | 2% |
| 2026-09-24 | 1.5% |
| 2026-09-23 | 1.5% |
| 2026-09-22 | 1.5% |
| 2026-09-21 | 1.4% |
| 2026-09-20 | 1.5% |
| 2026-09-19 | 1.5% |
| 2026-09-18 | 2% |
| 2026-09-17 | 2% |
| 2026-09-16 | 2% |
| 2026-09-15 | 2% |
| 2026-09-14 | 2% |
| 2026-09-13 | 2% |
| 2026-09-12 | 2% |
| 2026-09-11 | 2% |
| 2026-09-10 | 2% |
| 2026-09-09 | 2% |
| 2026-09-08 | 2% |
| 2026-09-07 | 1.5% |
| 2026-09-06 | 2% |
| 2026-09-05 | 1.5% |
| 2026-09-04 | 1.5% |
| 2026-09-03 | 1.4% |
| 2026-09-02 | 2% |
| 2026-09-01 | 2% |
| 2026-08-24 | 2% |
| 2026-08-22 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-21 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-20 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-19 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-18 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-17 | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-16 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-15 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-14 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-13 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-12 | 1.1% |
| 2026-08-11 | 2% |
| 2026-08-10 | 1.3% |
| 2026-08-09 | 1.4% |
| 2026-07-31 | 1.1% |
| 2026-07-30 | 0.8% |
| 2026-07-29 | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-28 | 0.4% |
| 2026-07-27 | 0.2% |
| 2026-07-21 | 2% |
| 2026-07-20 | 2% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.9%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 53 tracked days the odds held near 2%, ending at 0.9% on October 4, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season” for 53 days, since July 20, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.9%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 2% to 0.9%, ranging between 0.2% and 2% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.