Today’s odds
As of November 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 46%.
▼ 8 since the previous update. ▼ 8 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since November 5, 2026 · last updated 4:03 AM ET
46%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 54% | 46% | ▼ 8 |
Full history table
| Date | Before Jan 1, 2027 |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | 46% |
| 2026-11-05 | 54% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027 — what are the odds?
- As of November 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 46%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 54% on November 5, 2026 to 46% on November 6, 2026 — a change of 8 points.
- Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 2 tracked days the odds ranged between 46% and 54%. The current reading of 46% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027” for 2 days, since November 5, 2026. As of November 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 46%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 54% to 46%, ranging between 46% and 54% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.