Final tracked odds
As of September 27, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 82%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 23, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 27, 2026
82%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 82% | 82% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 82% |
| 2026-09-26 | 82% |
| 2026-09-25 | 74% |
| 2026-09-24 | 78% |
| 2026-09-23 | 80% |
| 2026-09-22 | 78% |
| 2026-09-21 | 82% |
| 2026-09-20 | 84% |
| 2026-09-19 | 84% |
| 2026-09-18 | 84% |
| 2026-09-17 | 84% |
| 2026-09-16 | 84% |
| 2026-09-15 | 84% |
| 2026-09-14 | 84% |
| 2026-09-13 | 81% |
| 2026-09-12 | 80% |
| 2026-09-11 | 82% |
| 2026-09-09 | 82% |
| 2026-08-03 | 44% |
| 2026-08-02 | 44% |
| 2026-07-24 | 48% |
| 2026-07-23 | 50% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 27, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 82%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 22 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 50% on July 23, 2026 to 82% on September 27, 2026 — a change of 32 points.
- Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 22 tracked days the odds ranged between 44% and 84%. The final reading of 82% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026” for 22 days, since July 23, 2026. As of September 27, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 82%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 50% to 82%, ranging between 44% and 84% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 27, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.