Final tracked odds
As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 8%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections?
Politics · tracked since September 23, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
8%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 2 | 8% | 8% | — |
Full history table
| Date | At least 2 |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 8% |
| 2026-09-29 | 8% |
| 2026-09-28 | 7% |
| 2026-09-23 | 10% |
| 2026-09-22 * | 10% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 10% on September 23, 2026 to 8% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will the number of U.S. Senate seats won by candidates unaffiliated with a political party be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections” for 4 days, since September 23, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 8%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 10% to 8%, ranging between 7% and 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.