Final tracked odds
As of October 11, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 76%.
▲ 3 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?
Everything Else · tracked since August 23, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 11, 2026
76%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 10 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 73% | 76% | ▲ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 76% |
| 2026-10-10 | 73% |
| 2026-10-09 | 73% |
| 2026-10-08 | 79% |
| 2026-10-07 | 78% |
| 2026-10-06 | 76% |
| 2026-10-05 | 76% |
| 2026-10-03 | 76% |
| 2026-10-02 | 72% |
| 2026-10-01 | 73% |
| 2026-09-13 | 56% |
| 2026-09-12 | 58% |
| 2026-09-11 | 60% |
| 2026-09-10 | 56% |
| 2026-09-09 | 52% |
| 2026-09-08 | 48% |
| 2026-08-23 | 42% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Will Trump and Putin meet next in China — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 11, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 76%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Will Trump and Putin meet next in China — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 17 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 42% on August 23, 2026 to 76% on October 11, 2026 — a change of 34 points.
- Will Trump and Putin meet next in China — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 17 tracked days the odds ranged between 42% and 79%. The final reading of 76% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Will Trump and Putin meet next in China” for 17 days, since August 23, 2026. As of October 11, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 76%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 42% to 76%, ranging between 42% and 79% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 11, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.