Edition of July 31, 2026

Edition of July 31, 2026 · built from 7,270 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:01 AM ET.

36%

Today’s Number

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for July 2026 be above 20.2¢?

Market-consensus odds put Above 20.2¢ at 36% this morning. · ▲ 26 points overnight · settles in 19 days · on unusually heavy volume

Today’s move is bigger than 92% of this question’s daily moves — unusual for this market, not just large in the abstract.
Has traded between 10% and 36% over 13 tracked days — today is its high.
Buyers and sellers are 48 points apart — a thin market, so read this number as a range, not a point.

What changed

What Moved

Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.

Forecast		Odds
Will Mandela Barnes finish 2nd in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary? Surging Mandela Barnes	Everything Else	2% ▼ 66 7d: ▼ 28
#2 Global Netflix Show on Aug 3, 2026? Surging Ransom Canyon: Season 2	Culture	84% ▲ 70 7d: ▲ 42
Rain in St. Petersburg in Jul 2026? Above 8 inches	Everything Else	20% ▼ 48 7d: ▼ 76
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score? Surging Above 91	Culture	16% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 29
What will be Kelsey Plum's next team? Los Angeles	WNBA	60% ▲ 38 7d: ▲ 38
What will Canelo Álvarez say during CBS Mornings? Mexico / Mexican	Culture	70% ▲ 37 7d: ▲ 37
Joel Iriarte vs Jorge Lagunas Winner? Joel Iriarte	Boxing	98% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 41
Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 18 million views? At least 18 million	Culture	70% ▲ 35 7d: ▲ 67
Will Trump post on Truth Social between 2:00 AM and 2:59 AM ET this week? Surging 2-3 AM	Everything Else	40% ▲ 36 7d: ▲ 15
Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 55000 Pure Album Sales (aka Product Sales) during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week? Surging Above 55K	Culture	27% ▼ 31 7d: ▲ 9

What to watch next

What to Watch Next

Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.

Question		Resolves	Odds
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? Yes	Everything Else	in 3 hours	73% ▼ 11 7d: ▼ 11
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes	Culture	in 3 hours	50% — 7d: ▼ 2
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026? Yes	Everything Else	in 7 hours	19% —
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 82.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 31, 2026? Above $82.99	Commodities	in 9 hours	44% ▼ 18 7d: ▼ 18
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% on Jul 31, 2026? 5.2% or above	Economy	in 10 hours	44% ▼ 14 7d: ▲ 19
Birmingham vs Barcelona Winner? Barcelona	Sports	later today	63% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 8
Will Ryan Gerard win the Rocket Classic? Ryan Gerard	Golf	tomorrow	10% — 7d: ▲ 9
Will Jeeno Thitikul win the AIG Women's Open? Jeeno Thitikul	Everything Else	tomorrow	36% ▼ 2 7d: ▲ 30
Rain in Miami in Jul 2026? Above 5 inches	Everything Else	tomorrow	53% ▲ 20 7d: ▲ 31
Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 80000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week? Above 80K	Culture	in 2 days	22% ▼ 21 7d: ▼ 30
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 91	Culture	in 3 days	16% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 29
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Oakland County? Oakland	Politics	in 4 days	54% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 43

Still open

Up in the Air

The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.

Forecast		Odds
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes · settles today	Culture	50% — 7d: ▼ 2
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 47 days	Economy	52% — 7d: ▲ 6
Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? Darline Graham · settles in 11 days	Politics	56% ▼ 3 7d: ▼ 15
Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election? Troy Jackson · settles in 95 days	Politics	62% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 1
Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for July 2026 be above 334.0 ? Above 334.0 · settles in 19 days	Economy	36% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 6
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes · settles in 62 days	Sports	28% ▼ 1 7d: ▼ 3
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 153 days	Everything Else	24% — 7d: ▼ 4
Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 80000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week? Above 80K · settles in 2 days	Culture	22% ▼ 21 7d: ▼ 30
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 830 days	Politics	20% —
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 830 days	Everything Else	19% —
Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 83.00 and 83.99 USD/Bbl on Jul 31, 2026? $83.00 to $83.99 · settles today	Commodities	19% ▲ 6 7d: ▲ 15
Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother Season 28? Dee Valladares · settles in 153 days	Everything Else	18% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 1
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score? Above 91 · settles in 3 days	Culture	16% ▼ 30 7d: ▼ 29
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 128 days	Sports	84% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 3
Will Francesco Ferrari win the Ferrari vs Ghetu: M25 Pitesti Quarterfinal match? Francesco Ferrari · settles today	Tennis	85% —
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes · settles in 153 days	Economy	12% — 7d: ▼ 2
How many straight weeks will 'petal' be #1? More than 1 week · settles in 152 days	Everything Else	12% ▲ 7 7d: ▲ 4
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 830 days	Politics	11% — 7d: ▼ 1
Will Ryan Gerard win the Rocket Classic? Ryan Gerard · settles tomorrow	Golf	10% — 7d: ▲ 9

Basically Decided

Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.

Forecast		Likelihood
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026? Yes · settles today	Everything Else	98.7% ▼ 1 7d: ▲ 3
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? Yes · settles today	Everything Else	99.2% — 7d: ▲ 4
Will the President's approval rating be below 40.2 according to RealClearPolitics? Below 40.2 · settles today	Politics	98.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 94
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? Yes · settles in 4 days	Politics	93.5% ▼ 2 7d: ▼ 2
Will Maxime Chazal win the Ifi vs Chazal: M15 Strasbourg Quarterfinal match? Maxime Chazal · settles today	Tennis	94.5% —
Will Music, Fashion, Film by Charli xcx have above 70000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 24, 2026 - July 30, 2026 tracking week? Above 70K · settles in 2 days	Culture	97.5% ▲ 41 7d: ▲ 54
Will Victoria Milovanova win the Nupbay vs Milovanova: W15 Astana Quarterfinal match? Victoria Milovanova · settles today	Tennis	96.0% —
Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 3, 2026? 72 HOURS · settles in 4 days	Culture	96.5% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 19
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 76.99 USD/Bbl on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $76.99 · settles today	Commodities	98.0% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 4
Will the brent crude oil close price be above 74.99 USD/Bbl on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $74.99 · settles today	Commodities	98.5% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 3