Today’s Number
BMW Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5?
Market-consensus odds put Scottie Scheffler at 16% this morning. · ▼ 42 points overnight · settles in 16 days · on unusually heavy volume
Edition of August 21, 2026
Edition of August 21, 2026 · built from 4,865 live consensus forecasts across 8 categories · Published 5:06 AM ET.
16%
What changed
What Moved
Forecasts that changed the most since our last update — the news, before it’s written up.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| BMW Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10? Scottie Scheffler | Golf | 31% ▼ 40 7d: ▼ 39 |
| BMW Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5? Surging Scottie Scheffler | Golf | 16% ▼ 42 7d: ▼ 40 |
| BMW Championship: Will Gary Woodland finish top 20? Gary Woodland | Golf | 72% ▲ 40 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 14M daily views at any point during August 17, 2026 - August 23, 2026? Above 14M | Culture | 76% ▲ 47 7d: ▲ 47 |
| Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Aug 16, 2026 and Aug 22, 2026? Surging Above 0 | Politics | 12% ▼ 48 7d: ▼ 53 |
| Will the #1 Show on Netflix have at least 15 million views? At least 15 million | Culture | 12% ▼ 46 7d: ▼ 46 |
| Will NDA by Trippie Redd have above 17000 Album Equivalent Units during the August 14, 2026 - August 20, 2026 tracking week? Above 17K | Culture | 76% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Will The Last House be #2 Global Netflix Movie on Aug 24, 2026? The Last House | Culture | 89% ▲ 46 7d: ▲ 46 |
| Will Mountain Dew Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -8%? Above -8% | Everything Else | 10% ▼ 40 7d: ▲ 16 |
| Will Celsius Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -14%? Above -14% | Everything Else | 17% ▼ 50 |
What to watch next
What to Watch Next
Undecided questions with a date on them — the catalysts that will move these forecasts, and when we find out. Nearest first.
| Question | Resolves | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Samsung Lions win by over 1.5 runs? Samsung Lions wins by over 1.5 runs | Everything Else | in 5 hours | 56% — |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,584.31 | Commodities | in 6 hours | 71% — |
| Will the President's approval rating be between 39.4 and 39.6 according to RealClearPolitics? 39.4 to 39.6 | Politics | in 6 hours | 62% ▲ 18 7d: ▲ 44 |
| Team Falcons wins Team Falcons | Everything Else | in 9 hours | 74% — |
| Will the S&P 500 be between 7725 and 7749.9999 on Aug 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT? 7,725 to 7,749.9999 | Markets | later today | 34% ▲ 24 7d: ▼ 1 |
| New York vs Pittsburgh Pro Football game: PIT Steelers wins? PIT Steelers | NFL | later today | 48% — 7d: ▼ 14 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the BMW Championship? Rory McIlroy | Golf | tomorrow | 19% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 14 |
| Will Trump say "Rigged Election / Stolen Election" before Aug 24, 2026? Rigged Election / Stolen Election | Politics | in 3 days | 62% ▲ 1 7d: ▼ 13 |
| Will Tires: Season 3 be #2 US Netflix Show on Aug 24, 2026? Tires: Season 3 | Culture | in 4 days | 90% ▲ 20 7d: ▲ 42 |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 14M daily views at any point during August 17, 2026 - August 23, 2026? Above 14M | Culture | in 4 days | 76% ▲ 47 7d: ▲ 47 |
Still open
Up in the Air
The questions with the most money riding on the answer — and no consensus yet. Sorted by how genuinely undecided they are.
| Question | Odds | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes · settles in 26 days | Economy | 30% ▲ 3 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Gold price up in next 15 mins? Target Price: $4,584.31 · settles today | Commodities | 71% — |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? Yes · settles in 110 days | Economy | 28% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 1 |
| Team Falcons wins Team Falcons · settles today | Everything Else | 74% — |
| Will Tie win Outstanding Variety Series at the Emmy Awards? Tie · settles in 25 days | Culture | 26% — 7d: ▼ 18 |
| Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff be above 250000? Above 250k · settles in 369 days | Politics | 78% ▲ 12 7d: ▲ 12 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 809 days | Politics | 20% — 7d: ▼ 3 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes · settles in 132 days | Everything Else | 16% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes · settles in 107 days | Sports | 84% — |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes · settles in 809 days | Everything Else | 15% — 7d: ▼ 2 |
| Will the margin of victory for Darline Graham in the 2026 South Carolina Senate special election runoff be at least 12%? Darline Graham, ≥12% · settles in 369 days | Politics | 15% ▼ 9 7d: ▼ 26 |
| Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes · settles in 314 days | NBA | 13% — |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes · settles in 809 days | Politics | 13% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be between 84.00 and 84.99 USD/Bbl on Aug 21, 2026? $84.00 to $84.99 · settles today | Commodities | 12% ▲ 1 7d: ▲ 6 |
| Dmitry Popko wins Dmitry Popko · settles today | Tennis | 12% — |
| Will Jacob Skov Olesen win the Nexo Championship? Jacob Skov Olesen · settles tomorrow | Everything Else | 12% ▲ 2 7d: ▲ 9 |
| Will Wyndham Clark win the BMW Championship? Wyndham Clark · settles tomorrow | Golf | 10% ▲ 8 7d: ▲ 7 |
| Will Tires: Season 3 be #2 US Netflix Show on Aug 24, 2026? Tires: Season 3 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 90% ▲ 20 7d: ▲ 42 |
Basically Decided
Outcomes the consensus already treats as done (93%+ likely, settling within the week) — read tomorrow’s news today.
| Question | Likelihood | |
|---|---|---|
| England vs Pakistan match: England wins England · settles in 3 days | Sports | 96.5% ▲ 23 7d: ▲ 26 |
| Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes · settles in 4 days | Politics | 93.8% — 7d: ▼ 1 |
| Amanda Serrano vs Lucrecia Anabella Manzur Winner? Amanda Serrano · settles today | Boxing | 95.5% — 7d: ▲ 2 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 88.99 USD/Bbl on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $88.99 · settles today | Commodities | 93.5% ▲ 30 7d: ▲ 53 |
| Will Outer Banks: Season 5 be Top US Netflix Show on Aug 24, 2026? Outer Banks: Season 5 · settles in 4 days | Culture | 95.0% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 5 |
| Will the brent crude oil close price be above 86.99 USD/Bbl on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Above $86.99 · settles today | Commodities | 96.5% ▲ 14 7d: ▲ 41 |
| Will Don't Say Good Luck be Top US Netflix Movie on Aug 24, 2026? Don't Say Good Luck · settles in 4 days | Culture | 96.0% ▲ 5 7d: ▲ 14 |
| A100 SXM4 price up in next week? Price to Beat: 1.04 · settles today | Everything Else | 93.5% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 50 |
| Will the average temperature in Dallas/Fort Worth be above 90°F for 2 or more consecutive days in the week of Aug 18, 2026? 2+ consecutive days · settles in 4 days | News | 98.5% — |
| Most popular AI this week? DeepSeek · settles in 3 days | Everything Else | 95.5% ▲ 4 7d: ▲ 12 |